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This paper explores what comprises high quality decision-oriented economic public policy analysis. It then places that definition in the context of the demand for economic policy analysis. The paper concludes by presenting opinion...
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This paper explores what comprises high quality decision-oriented economic public policy analysis. It then places that definition in the context of the demand for economic policy analysis. The paper concludes by presenting opinions as to why finding an audience for nonpartisan policy analysis has become more difficult, and by identifying ways for applied economists to be effective in the current public policy environment..
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This article provides an agnostic, historical review of taxation and economic growth. It critically evaluates how the relationship between the two has evolved throughout modern history. After an introduction that provides a genera...
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This article provides an agnostic, historical review of taxation and economic growth. It critically evaluates how the relationship between the two has evolved throughout modern history. After an introduction that provides a general overview of the relationship between taxation and growth, the article first discusses the positive role of taxes in promoting economic development in the pre-war and post-war periods of the 1940s. It then critically comments on Solow's neoclassical growth theory and explains the experience of stagflation faced by many advanced countries in the 1970s and its implications for tax theory. New growth theories that attribute an important role in economic growth to government policy in general and tax policy in particular are then discussed. This is followed by a rounded five-point assessment of the impact of taxes on growth. The article ends with a general conclusion.
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The race to economic superiority is increasingly occurring on a global scale. Competitors from different countries are employing new types of growth strategies in attempts to win that race. The United States cannot, therefore, con...
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The race to economic superiority is increasingly occurring on a global scale. Competitors from different countries are employing new types of growth strategies in attempts to win that race. The United States cannot, therefore, continue to rely on outdated economic growth strategies, which include an inability to understand the complexity of the typical industrial technology and the synergies among tiers in high-tech supply chains. In this context, a detailed rationale is provided for maintaining a viable domestic technology-based manufacturing capability. In the United States, the still dominant neoclassical economic philosophy is at best ambivalent on the issue of whether a technology-based economy should attempt to remain competitive in manufacturing or let this sector continue to offshore in response to trends in comparative advantage, as revealed through shifts in relative prices. The paper argues that the neoclassical view is inaccurate and that a new innovation model is required to guide economic growth policy. Specifically, the paper provides (1) a rationale for why an advanced economy such as the United States needs a manufacturing sector; (2) examples of the process of deterioration of competitive positions for individual industries and, more important, entire high-tech supply chains; (3) an explanation of the inadequacy of current economic models for rationalizing needed new policy strategies; and (4) a new economic framework for determining both policy mechanisms and targets for those mechanisms, with emphasis on the systems nature of modern technologies and the consequent requirement for public-private innovation ecosystems to develop and deliver these technologies. Several targets are suggested for major policy mechanisms.
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Purpose - Perfect competition (PC), despite its abstract nature, is central to the literature on shadow prices and remains an important benchmark in economic policy analysis. Adding sustainability to the conditions of PC, results ...
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Purpose - Perfect competition (PC), despite its abstract nature, is central to the literature on shadow prices and remains an important benchmark in economic policy analysis. Adding sustainability to the conditions of PC, results in a meaningful benchmark, especially in the context of pursuing sustainability as a policy goal. On this basis, some standard explanations involving the comparisons with imperfect competition can be questioned. But, importantly the recognition of sustainability besides the standard conditions of PC provides the basis for expositing voluntary environmental stewardship. This paper aims to address these issues.
Design/methodology/approach - The paper focuses on PC and sustainability (PCS) and PC and PCS vs monopoly.
Findings - The implications of this simple analysis are at least three-fold. First, in the sphere of applied economics and policy analysis, PC has served as an important benchmark - especially in the shadow pricing literature dealing with project appraisal and cost-benefit analysis. The main argument in this paper is that PCS would prove to be a better benchmark because it would facilitate the choice of decisions that would satisfy the criteria for sustainability. Second, the recognition PCS prompts the reassessment of comparisons with imperfect market organizations such as monopoly. Within an unregulated context, monopolies, if able to exploit economies of scale, can expand output beyond the limits dictated by PC and PCS and hence compromise the possibilities of sustainability. Finally, and more importantly, the introduction of PCS as a benchmark enables the exposition of voluntary stewardship as a potential measure towards sustainability. Originality/value - The paper offers insights into PCS.
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This paper focuses on the more stable fundamentals of (agricultural) economic policy analysis in a time of changing methodologies. In the classical dichotomy of purposes for empirical microeconomic analysis (positive versus normat...
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This paper focuses on the more stable fundamentals of (agricultural) economic policy analysis in a time of changing methodologies. In the classical dichotomy of purposes for empirical microeconomic analysis (positive versus normative), this focus might be characterized as a revival of normative purposes - identification of policies that make people better off. First, the paper shows that support for normative policy analysis has been eroded by empirical practices that have turned toward estimation of atheoretic and reduced form equations that fail to identify marginal behaviour and underlying preferences. Second, it is demonstrated that estimation of behavioural equations derived from optimization theory cannot distinguish preferences from perceptions in microeconomic problems with uncertainty and is thus insufficient for normative policy analysis. Third, the paper suggests approaches to identify preferences and perceptions that require (1) joint estimation of behavioural and nonbehavioural relationships, (2) inference of distributional structure, and (3) estimation of perception errors. Without progress on these fronts, it is agued that preferences cannot be identified sufficiently to permit defensible normative welfare and policy analysis.
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The answer to the question "What will future potential growth be?" is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, t...
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The answer to the question "What will future potential growth be?" is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth - finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade - finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe some effects of the economic policies implemented by the Guatemalan government on rural communities. Design/methodology/approach – A comparison of the trends in corn prices over...
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe some effects of the economic policies implemented by the Guatemalan government on rural communities. Design/methodology/approach – A comparison of the trends in corn prices over time between Guatemala and the USA was used to determine which year the impact of economic openness policies began. Then, changes in the area harvested of corn and other agricultural products and diet composition and consumption patterns over this time period were used to assess effects on rural communities. Findings – The trend in Guatemala's corn price and the trend in the US's corn price are similar in the period from 1988 to 2005. There has been a reduction of in the area of corn harvested and an increase in the area harvested of other agricultural products for 1980-2005. Also, it appears that there has been a change in the food energy consumption, food proteins source and caloric intake Guatemalans. Research limitations/implications – Field interviews are needed to examine in detail the specific adaptations communities have had. Practical implications – Economic opening policies can have an effect on cultural elements, such as corn production and the diet. Originality/value – This paper suggests that the economic openness policies started to show their effects at the end of 1980 affecting agricultural production and the diet of Guatemalans.
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After Adam Smith's statement of market virtues, the process of gestation of economic policy as a rational set of rules for public agenda has been rather slow. Until not so long ago, economic policy as a discipline was often confin...
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After Adam Smith's statement of market virtues, the process of gestation of economic policy as a rational set of rules for public agenda has been rather slow. Until not so long ago, economic policy as a discipline was often confined to prescribing practical rules intended to explain technical procedures of government intervention. Economic policy- as a coherent and to some extent autonomous discipline-only emerged in the late 1950s in Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Italy, when solid foundations indicating not only microeconomic but also macroeconomic market failures and a theory about the conditions for policy effectiveness and design were consistently developed. This paper intends to explain the reasons for the emergence of the discipline, the circumstances that favoured its diffusion, the reasons for its apparent setback and some factors that could facilitate its diffusion in the next years
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Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to review the issues involved in determining the appropriate speed of adjustment and the sequencing of economic reforms, and to develop a checklist of key guidelines for policymakers as a basi...
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Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to review the issues involved in determining the appropriate speed of adjustment and the sequencing of economic reforms, and to develop a checklist of key guidelines for policymakers as a basis for their decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach - The paper develops a conceptual framework based on a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature, and the practical experience of the authors in this area. Findings - The analysis in the paper shows that the optimal speed and sequence of reforms is country-specific But key policy considerations can help guide policymakers in the design of their reform strategy. Practical implications - The arguments favoring a shock approach or a gradual approach are not absolute. Each country has to choose the proper speed of adjustment and sequencing of reforms by examining country-specific factors. A thorough case-by-case analysis is needed before a decision on the appropriate timing and sequencing of reforms can be made. Originality/value - The analysis in the paper leads to key reform guidelines for policymakers - covering areas such as prerequisites and resource constraints, political economy considerations, credibility and sustainability of reforms - that are instrumental in developing a well-sequenced strategy.
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